Assessment of Macroeconomic Sustainability of the Chemical Production Sector

The paper analyzes the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment on the development of the domestic chemical production sector. The results of the study are specified in the context of the specifics of the current political, administrative and macroeconomic situation, as well as the features inherent in the considered branch of the national economy. The relevance of the study is a direct consequence of the need to form objective and exhaustive judgments concerning, in particular, optimal ways of developing the field of industrial chemistry, capable of being generalized within other branches of industrial production, within the framework of the task of ensuring technological sovereignty and achieving national economic well-being. Using the methods of quantitative economic analysis, a comparative statistical assessment of the characteristics of the correlation between the dynamics of the main indicators of the chemical industry development and the factor of the domestic macroeconomical situation was carried out, as such a factor the change in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was considered. Based on the results of the conducted research, new analytical ideas have been formed that can be summarized in the context of a number of practice-oriented conclusions regarding the prospects for the development of the chemical industry in conditions of macroeconomic instability and the need for structural and functional restructuring of the domestic material production sector. In particular, the comparatively lower sensitivity of the chemical industry sector to the consequences of the implementation of state monetary regulation measures was noted; the thesis on the fundamental possibility of stable intensive and innovative development of this sphere in the context of a policy of strict monetary restriction was substantiated, and the form of an integrated indicator was proposed that makes it possible to quantify the potential sustainability of this area of production. The results of the study are of practical interest in the context of making long-term analytical forecasts as part of the formation, as well as strategic and operational adjustments of aspects of national structural, industrial policy, as well as regulation of monetary relations. The subject of further researches may be the analysis of the validity of the formed theoretical judgments in the context of other criteria and categories of assessment of the national macroeconomic situation.

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