gosuprГосударственное управление. Электронный вестникPublic Administration. E-journal (Russia)2070-1381Факультет государственного управления МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова10.55959/MSU2070-1381-115-2026-190-209gosupr-64Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ВОПРОСЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯECONOMIC ISSUES IN ADMINISTRATIONЦены нефти как третий индикатор монетарной политики Федеральной резервной системы СШАOil Prices as the Third Indicator of the US Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2055-1497ТеньковскаяЛ. И.TenkovskayaL. I.

Теньковская Людмила Игоревна, Кандидат экономических наук, доцент, аналитик фондового рынка

Москва

Lyudmila I. Tenkovskaya, PhD, Associate Professor, stock market analyst

Moscow

tenkovskaya.lyudmila@gmail.comМосковская биржа ММВБ–РТСРоссияMoscow Exchange MICEX-RTSRussian Federation2026200520261115190209Copyright © Теньковская Л.И., 20262026Теньковская Л.И.Tenkovskaya L.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.spajournal.ru/jour/article/view/64

Мировые цены нефти ставят в зависимость Федеральную резервную систему США (ФРС США) от стран — экспортеров нефти и негативно отражаются на экономике Соединенных Штатов, что ослабляет конкурентоспособность страны. Представленное научное исследование является актуальным, поскольку оно проливает свет на имеющееся влияние конъюнктуры мирового рынка нефти на монетарную политику ФРС США и экономику Соединенных Штатов в целом. Цель научной проработки — экономико-математическое моделирование взаимосвязей мировых цен нефти, монетарной политики Федеральной резервной системы США, экономики США. В ходе научного исследования применялись специальные научные методы: тест Дики — Фуллера, KPSS-тест, корреляционный анализ, методы удаления тренда из временных рядов, сглаживания временных рядов с помощью центрированной скользящей средней, метод Койка. Результаты научной работы показали: мировые цены нефти — третий индикатор монетарной политики Федеральной резервной системы США, потому что от них зависит ставка по федеральным фондам и денежная масса США; эта выявленная связь скрыта, она не просматривается через влияние мировых цен нефти на потребительскую инфляцию, поскольку цены на энергоносители исключены из расчета целевого показателя потребительской инфляции ФРС США. Таким образом, в долгосрочной перспективе Соединенные Штаты зависимы от конъюнктуры мирового рынка нефти, так как она определяет направления монетарной политики Федеральной резервной системы США и формирует состояние макроэкономики страны. Дальнейшие научные исследования должны быть ориентированы на детальное изучение экономических показателей Соединенных Штатов, испытывающих влияние мировых цен нефти, с целью выработки мер по снижению конкурентоспособности этой страны.

Global oil prices make the US Federal Reserve System dependent on oil-exporting countries and negatively impact the US economy, weakening the country’s competitiveness. This research is relevant because it sheds light on the existing influence of global oil market conditions on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System and the US economy. The aim of this study is to provide economic and mathematical modelling of the relationships between global oil prices, the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, and the US economy. Special scientific methods were used in the study: the Dickey-Fuller test, the KPSS test, correlation analysis, time series detrending, time series smoothing using a centered moving average, and Koyck regression model. The results of the study demonstrate that global oil prices are the third indicator of the US Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy, as they influence the federal funds rate and the US money supply. This identified link is hidden; it is not visible through the impact of global oil prices on consumer inflation, as energy prices are excluded from the calculation of the US Federal Reserve’s consumer inflation target. Thus, in the long term, the United States is dependent on global oil market conditions, as they determine the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and shape the country’s macroeconomic situation. Further research should focus on a detailed study of US economic indicators influenced by global oil prices, with the aim of developing measures to reduce the country’s competitiveness.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.